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Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season/September
September 11E.ELEVEN AoI: Gulf of Tehuantepec Another huge bunch of storms behind 94E, up on NHC at low (10%) risk. They do not sound enthusiastic about it. --Patteroast 03:37, September 3, 2010 (UTC) :20% now. --Patteroast 13:17, September 3, 2010 (UTC) ::Medium risk. YE 'T'ropical [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 22:00, September 3, 2010 (UTC) 95E.INVEST Invested. Medium risk. If it forms it is article time. YE 'T'ropical [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 22:00, September 3, 2010 (UTC) :Special Two! UPDATED...GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. :hip hip Horray! YE 'T'ropical [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 22:29, September 3, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Eleven-E Offical now! YE 'T'ropical [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 22:48, September 3, 2010 (UTC) :Yikes. Tropical storm warnings issued. Looks like 10E took too long and 11E's going to be Georgette. Should be a brief storm, but as we've seen before, storms dumping lots of rain on this region can be devastating... --Patteroast 01:42, September 4, 2010 (UTC) ::Huh. I was looking at various model runs, and I noticed something strange in the latest HWRF run for 10E... if you look at the global view, it appears to show 11E crossing into the Gulf and making landfall in Texas as a storm. --Patteroast 01:55, September 4, 2010 (UTC) :::I really really want this to become a TS for once in my life. YE 'T'ropical [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 03:16, September 4, 2010 (UTC) ::::Nope... on shore. I guess Georgette will still have to wait. --Patteroast 10:21, September 4, 2010 (UTC) :::::NHC You suck! Use surface observations not T-numbers. YE 'T'ropical [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 12:25, September 4, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Georgette? Actually, the NRL briefly upgraded it! NHC you suck so much. Whoever held off the upgrade your fired! YE 'T'ropical [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 14:44, September 4, 2010 (UTC) Uh, what? The NRL doesn't do the upgrading themselves... they get their information from the same source as the NHC. Also, I see no sign of this on NRL anymore. NRL made an error. If 11E did make it to storm strength, it will be declared an unnamed tropical storm in the post-season. --Patteroast 17:30, September 4, 2010 (UTC) 94C.INVEST Hey, new invest in the CPac. 10% risk for now, but at least this one has some time to develop... barely west of the 140 W cutoff between EPac and CPac. --Patteroast 17:34, September 4, 2010 (UTC) :Still out there at 10%. --Patteroast 04:13, September 8, 2010 (UTC) ::Finally gone. Been off NRL for quite a while, but not even on the CPHC site anymore. --Patteroast 23:26, September 10, 2010 (UTC) 95C.INVEST Another CPac invest near 94C. This one's at 20% chance, though. --Patteroast 04:13, September 8, 2010 (UTC) :And down to 10%. CPac sure is exciting this year. --Patteroast 12:37, September 8, 2010 (UTC) ::Still out there doing nothing. Up to 20% at the moment, but "expected to encounter unfavorable atmospheric conditions Saturday." --Patteroast 23:26, September 10, 2010 (UTC) :::Back to 10%. No longer on NRL. --Patteroast 05:47, September 12, 2010 (UTC) AoI:Well South of Baja Hey! There's something on NHC. Not really a very exciting area, 20% risk, but EPac's been crazy quiet lately, so it's worth mentioning. --Patteroast 20:55, September 16, 2010 (UTC) :Now near 0%. Oh well. --Patteroast 13:18, September 18, 2010 (UTC) Just asking, is this the remains of Gaston? HurricaneSpin Talk to me 04:28, October 10, 2010 (UTC) 97C.INVEST AoI:SE of Hawaii There's been a blob in the CPac for a few days, never more than 10% chance... doesn't seem very likely and now it says, "Conditions do not appear to be conducive for further development..." Still, at this point anything at all in the EPac/CPac is worth mentioning. --Patteroast 13:18, September 18, 2010 (UTC) :Still out there, still 10%, still not going to do anything. --Patteroast 07:36, September 20, 2010 (UTC) 97C.INVEST Hello! I'd stopped watching this because nothing had happened in CPac so far this year, but now I look again and it's invest'd and up to 60% risk, even a TCFA on NRL! We could actually have Omeka here. Models do keep it away from the main islands of Hawaii. --Patteroast 09:07, September 22, 2010 (UTC) :Aww. And back down, now at 30% risk. --Patteroast 03:15, September 23, 2010 (UTC) ::And now 20%. Conditions no longer favorable. --Patteroast 21:25, September 23, 2010 (UTC) :::What's left of this is at 10%. --Patteroast 04:12, September 25, 2010 (UTC) 12E.GEORGETTE AoI:Near Mexico New blob on NHC! At 20%, please develop please for just once in my life. Please. YE 'T'ropical [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 02:36, September 19, 2010 (UTC) :Well, GFS has it go down to 1001 by September 21. And it definitely isn't a stupid low, it's persistent. Tropical Storm Georgette, probably the last storm of the season. atomic7732 03:47, September 19, 2010 (UTC) :Last storm? If this develops we will have Howard in October IMO. YE 'T'ropical [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 05:02, September 19, 2010 (UTC) ::Definitely premature to say that the pattern will hold for the entire remainder of the season. As for this storm in particular, the risk is up to 40% now. --Patteroast 18:13, September 19, 2010 (UTC) 96E.INVEST Up on my blog (though unoffical). 00:53, September 20, 2010 (UTC) :Er, I'm not sure what anyone's blog has to do with assigning invest numbers, but the NRL site has this now. Also, NHC has it at 50% risk. --Patteroast 07:35, September 20, 2010 (UTC) : :Finally! Hopefully we can get a Georgette out of this, and maybe some rain over here in AZ? atomic7732 14:13, September 20, 2010 (UTC) :Looking bad. YE 'T'ropical [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 23:02, September 20, 2010 (UTC) ::70$ 97.124.116.132 23:46, September 20, 2010 (UTC) :::Seems to be Karl's remnants. I see a COC. Could affect California. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:17, September 21, 2010 (UTC) ::::I can see this storm going north and becoming a depression just before making landfall somwhere on Mexico's northern coast. Then I see Remnant low effects over Arizona, Utah, and maybe if it persists and doesn't get absorbed by a trough, maybe it'll cross the US.atomic7732 00:50, September 21, 2010 (UTC) :::::As a tropical system, it will probably be short lived. It already has the winds for a tropical storm, so if it organizes enough, it'll go straight to Georgette. --Patteroast 01:41, September 21, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Georgette Special TWO issued, upping the risk of development to 'near 100%', and saying that "...THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM AND...AS A RESULT...A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ON TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE." --Patteroast 11:47, September 21, 2010 (UTC) :Right... I refreshed NHC after posting it, and the advisory's up. Some tropical storm warnings for the tip of Baja, expected to be a short-lived storm. --Patteroast 11:49, September 21, 2010 (UTC) ::Party! Baja can sure use the rain. Patt, BTW, when you but do not put empty headers on pages. Thank you. YE 'T'ropical [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 12:38, September 21, 2010 (UTC) :::I can't say I'm sure what you mean... --Patteroast 12:44, September 21, 2010 (UTC) :::Nevermind my comment. YE 'T'ropical [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 12:47, September 21, 2010 (UTC) ::::Woot! AZ better get rain from this thing. I have been waiting a whole 5 years to get some TC rain that I knew was a TC! 97.124.116.132 14:03, September 21, 2010 (UTC) :::::Heh, congrats. ;) Can't say I've ever had the same... I'm in Minnesota. As for Georgette, landfall near Cabo San Lucas but over water again. There's a tropical storm watch for the east coast of the Gulf of California, but the forecast doesn't strengthen Georgette back to a storm. --Patteroast 09:03, September 22, 2010 (UTC) ::::::I hope it can, so it has a bit more steam over land. Forecast ends just 30 miles maybe east of Phoenix... awesome! atomic7732 14:43, September 22, 2010 (UTC) :::::::It's getting cloudy from Georgette. atomic7732 23:04, September 22, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::Last advisory. --Patteroast 03:14, September 23, 2010 (UTC) :::::::: 97E.INVEST AoI:South of Oaxaca NHC's got a new blob at 10% risk. Not supposed to move much for a bit... a couple models have Howard popping up from this. --Patteroast 19:17, September 22, 2010 (UTC) 97E.INVEST Still at 10%, but invest'd now. --Patteroast 03:13, September 23, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::EPAC may be starting up again. I think I can see an Isis wave. Plus the one wave in the ATL that is east of Panama/Costa Rica. atomic7732 03:24, September 23, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::STILL AT 10%! And it looks awesome! This makes zero sense! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 13:40, September 24, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::Ahh, but young'n, convection is the key to sense. :P atomic7732 14:29, September 24, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::I think it got up to medium risk for a while, but it's at near 0% now. --Patteroast 00:18, September 28, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::::Back up to 10%. --Patteroast 21:04, September 28, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::::Finally off NHC... although still on NRL. --Patteroast 21:42, September 29, 2010 (UTC) AoI:170 Degrees W New on CPHC. This and 97C are twin blobs over in CPac... both at 20% risk, and both in unfavorable conditions to develop. --Patteroast 21:26, September 23, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::Near 0% now. Oh well. --Patteroast 02:41, September 24, 2010 (UTC)